Tuesday, June 25, 2013

Radioactive: Kicking off Primary Season


We can now comfirm that Vice President Gillibrand has come out on top of the Democratic pack in the parties Iowa caucus, as largely expected from previous polling. One thing that we can be surprised about with the caucus is Senator Heinrich taking second place ahead of Hickenlooper, who was polling at second place before the caucus took place. Gillibrand has thanked her supporters for coming out in force and also President Biden for helping to be her mentor and inspiration.

Vice President Kirsten Gillibrand of New York: 41%
Senator Martin Heinrich of New Mexico: 23%
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development John Hickenlooper of Colorado: 20%
Secretary of Agriculture Brian Schweitzer of Montana: 16%
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We can finally bring you news of the GOP Iowa Caucus, which was extremely close. Senator Rubio has barely come out on top, winning 22% of the vote. Senator Cruz trailed by only a percent with former Governor Walker a close third at 19%. Portman and Walker both did quite a but better than previous polling has indicated, which can probably be attributed to their heavy campaigning in Iowa over the course of the past few years. Christie, Martinez, and Sandoval sunk to the bottom of the pack. Senator Rubio has thanked his supporters, and has stated that the only person the GOP is likely to support is somebody who refuses to take sides and fights for unity. However, it is still quite telling that the two self proclaimed conservatives polled in second and third with all moderates polling below them.

Senator Marco Rubio of Florida: 22%
Fmr. Senator Ted Cruz of Texas: 21%
Fmr. Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin: 19%
Secretary of State Jon Huntsman of Utah: 12.3%
Senate Minority Whip Rob Portman of Ohio: 8.3%
Governor Scott Brown of Massachusetts: 7.9%
Fmr. Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey: 5.3%
Governor Susana Martinez of New Mexico: 4%
Fmr. Governor Brian Sandoval of Nevada: 1%
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Iowa, as usual, starts the thinning of candidate fields. On the GOP side of the race, Sandoval was the first to drop out of the race after finishing in last place, and he is endorsing Huntsman for the nomination. Martinez has also dropped out of the race, endorsing Portman for the nomination. All of the Democrats are staying in the race due in part to the fact they each got a fairly significant part of the vote. Secretary of State Huntsman has stated that he could be ready to make an announcement about his campaign based on what happens in the next few primaries and caucuses.
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Vice President Gillibrand will have her second victory in a row through the New Hampshire primary. She gained on her previous margin by an extra two percent. Hickenlooper and Schweitzer were marginally more popular, with Heinrich losing ground. She thanks her supporters for sticking with her through the second primary. However, Hickenlooper has been campaigning very hard in Nevada in preparation for the upcoming caucus. Hickenlooper's standing in the state has been improving over the course of the week, and whatever happens, the results will likely be neck and neck for the Democrats.

Vice President Kirsten Gillibrand of New York: 43%
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development John Hickenlooper of Colorado: 22%
Secretary of Agriculture Brian Schweitzer of Montana: 21%
Senator Martin Heinrich of New Mexico: 13%
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We can confirm a pretty big upset has occurred in the GOP primary with the victory of Governor Brown. He won 24% of the vote, even larger than Rubio in Iowa. Walker, Huntsman, or Rubio were the favorites to win, but Brown campaigned a lot and capitalized on his clout as a regionally popular Republican, which is not too common in solidly liberal New England. Rubio and Cruz remained in lock with each other with Walker falling to fourth at a fairly low 11.3%. Brown has stated that he wants to capitalize on this victory to catapult his campaign into the national scene. Many people are looking at this as foreboding after Ayotte's upset in this primary in 2016 as what catapulted her from dark horse to party nominee. Cruz has stated that he feels Brown is compromising on the core ideals of the Republican Party through his "pandering" to Democrats as Governor.

Governor Scott Brown of Massachusetts: 24%
Senator Marco Rubio of Florida: 23%
Fmr. Senator Ted Cruz of Texas: 21%
Fmr. Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin: 11.3%
Secretary of State Jon Huntsman of Utah: 8.3%
Senate Minority Whip Rob Portman of Ohio: 6.3%
Fmr. Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey: 5.9%
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Senator Cruz has made his first victory in South Carolina, a state with a very strong conservative tradition. He had a rather large margin of victory compared to recent contests at 27%. His victory in the state was largely predicted due to the large Tea Party base in the state that has been very supportive of the Cruz campaign. Rubio maintained a rather high standing, with Brown keeping hold of his momentum from New Hampshire to get him a third place finish here. Cruz thanked his supporters and has vowed to keep fighting for the Republican Party and America. The fact that three different candidates have won the first three primaries is a very big sign that the GOP primary season will be a very divisive one.

Fmr. Senator Ted Cruz of Texas: 27%
Senator Marco Rubio of Florida: 24%
Governor Scott Brown of Massachusetts: 21%
Fmr. Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin: 16.3%
Secretary of State Jon Huntsman of Utah: 6%
Senate Minority Whip Rob Portman of Ohio: 5.6%
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Today at a rally in Las Vegas, Nevada, Secretary of State Huntsman dropped a political bombshell by announcing his resignation from the GOP race and announced the start of his campaign as a independent, with his running mate being former Governor of Nevada Brian Sandoval. He stated that he felt the Republican Party was hijacked by conservatives who wanted to keep the party in the last century, and that a common sense candidate would be hard pressed to emerge from the party's primary process and emerge victorious. He stated that he feels the Biden administration had done a lot of things right, but that there are a lot of things that could have been completed that would have improved the lives of everyday Americans had Congress embodied the spirit of compromise instead of getting involved in petty politics. He also stated that as an independent, he can work with both sides of the aisle like few presidents in the modern era have been even able to come close to doing. At the moment, there is not too much data, but we have speculative polls from the ANN website to compare Huntsman to other possible candidates.

Sec. of State Huntsman (33%) v. VP Gillibrand (44%) v. Senator Cruz (23%)
Sec. of State Huntsman (23%) v. VP Gillibrand (43%) v. Senator Rubio (34%)
Sec. of State Huntsman (22%) v. VP Gillibrand (39%) v. Governor Brown (39%)

Already, a large number of politicians have made very vocal reactions to Huntsman's announcement. All three front runners in the Republican race have expressed disapproval at his decision since it has caused a decent amount of vote splitting between with Republican voters, but minimal defections from Democratic voters. Cruz has gone as far to call his decision a complete betrayal of the party he stood by and the conservative people of America. Gillibrand has stated that she understands his circumstances and acknowledges that she will likely have a tough fight to win the Presidency if she recieves her party's nomination.
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We have some breaking news in the form of a Hickenlooper victory in the Nevada caucus. He won with 36% of the vote and a margin of victory of two percent. Hickenlooper's strategy of focusing on this caucus and abandoning the New Hampshire primary seems to have worked. Hickenlooper gave a speech about how his record as governor of Colorado shows that he can work on both sides of the aisle and het things done, and that he agrees with Gillibrand, but it is just a matter of who can actually get the results. With Schweitzer and Heinrich continuing to fall in each successive primary, it is looking like the race is going to come down between Gillibrand and Hickenlooper. The primary race is also shaping up to be very regional, with Hickenlooper polling higher in the west and Gillbrand polling higher in the east.

Secretary of Housing and Urban Development John Hickenlooper of Colorado: 36%
Vice President Kirsten Gillibrand of New York: 34%
Secretary of Agriculture Brian Schweitzer of Montana: 19%
Senator Martin Heinrich of New Mexico: 10%

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