Tuesday, July 2, 2013

Radioactive: Wrapping up the 2020 Primaries


At this time, we have some breaking news to bring. Justice Scalia has been declared dead due to a severe heart attack at the age of 84. He was recently considering retiring from the court, but his life ended abruptly before he could make that decision himself. Doctors said that his health had declined somewhat in recent months, but no signs pointed that a serious heart attack was imminent. Presdient Biden has stated that he mourns the death of Justice Scalia and that he respects how long he dedicated himself to service on the Supreme Court. He served for 34 years, one of the longest periods of service of any justice. Biden has also stated that in respect of his memory, he is going to wait until the 19th to announce his choice to fill the vacant seat. Jusitce Scalia's funeral will be held this weekend.

Almost all candidates for President sent their condolences in respect of the late Justice. Senator Cruz stated that in his memory, he is going to fight hard for the strong traditional American ideals Justice Scalia embodied while on the court. Gillibrand stated that she respected and admired how long he was able to fulfill his duty as justice on the Supreme Court, but that they could agree to disagree. Some people are predicting that another Court of Appeals judge will be nominated, since they provide the strongest and most diverse choices, but we will only know for sure two days from now.
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President Biden announced today that he has nominated 3rd Circuit Court of Appeals Judge Joseph Greenaway to the Supreme Court to fill the vacant seat created by Justice Scalia's death. In his speech, he stated that he was the best man for the job, and that there was nobody better to continue the legacy of dedication Justice Scalia brought to the court. Greenaway earned his B.A. at Colombia University and his J.D. at Harvard, continuing the tradition of Harvard alumni becoming Supreme Court justices. Greenaway was appointed to the Court of Appeals by President Obama in 2010, and he has has been considered multiple times since the retirement of Ginsburg to become a Supreme Court Justice.

However, this decision has already been met with opposition from the Republican Party in Congress. Minority Leader Ayotte has stated that she will try to get her party to oppose his nomination due to his very liberal repertoire on the Court of Appeals. She stated that they might even attempt a filibuster, which was not used during the nomination of Justice Nguyen. There have also been vocal reactions from the Republican candidates, with Cruz and Rubio stating that they were completely against his nomination, and Brown said that he did not like his position but that "partisan bickering" would get the country nowhere and that compromise on the part of the appointer and the confirmer was needed.
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MARCH 31, 2020

Rubio has made another fairly big victory in the Illinois primary. He did not win by too significant of a margin, but the states 69 delegates will help put him ahead of Cruz who he has been consistently neck and neck with.

Senator Marco Rubio of Florida: 46.1%
Senator Ted Cruz of Texas: 37.5%
Governor Scott Brown of Massachusetts: 15.4%
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MARCH 31, 2020

Gillibrand has won yet another victory, but this was a largely projected one.

Vice President Kirsten Gillibrand of New York: 62%
 Secretary of Housing and Urban Development John Hickenlooper of Colorado: 38%
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APRIL 7, 2020

Gillibrand has won the D.C. contest in a landslide, which was largely predicted by previous polling.

Vice President Kirsten Gillibrand of New York: 87.6%
 Secretary of Housing and Urban Development John Hickenlooper of Colorado: 12.4%
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APRIL 7, 2020

Gillibrand has won yet another victory, but this was a largely projected one.

Vice President Kirsten Gillibrand of New York: 67%
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development John Hickenlooper of Colorado: 33%
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APRIL 7, 2020

Rubio has made another small victory, but an important one in such a close contest. This contest was closer than Illinois with Brown heavily contesting in the second place position.

Senator Marco Rubio of Florida: 43.4%
Governor Scott Brown of Massachusetts: 39.5%
Senator Ted Cruz of Texas: 16.1%
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APRIL 7, 2020

We can also call a victory for Brown tonight in the D.C. The state is small, but it is a big relief for Brown since he needs to keep winning primaries to have a fighting chance at the nomination.

Governor Scott Brown of Massachusetts: 62.8%
Senator Marco Rubio of Florida: 29%
Senator Ted Cruz of Texas: 8.2%
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APRIL 7, 2020

We can also call a big upset victory for Brown tonight in the Wisconsin contest. This state was much closer than any of the other GOP contests tonight, and it just shows how much momentum the Brown campaign, and that he could possibly become a challenger as opposed to a third wheel. It is also a telling sign that Cruz has only been able to come into even a second place finish after Super Tuesday in this contest, which is something he hopes to change.

Governor Scott Brown of Massachusetts: 43.4%
Senator Ted Cruz of Texas: 42.6%
Senator Marco Rubio of Florida: 13%
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APRIL 7, 2020

Gillibrand has won yet another victory, but this one was by a razor thin margin. Hickenlooper had campaigned heavily in the state after his win in the neighboring state of Minnesota.

Vice President Kirsten Gillibrand of New York: 50.4%
 Secretary of Housing and Urban Development John Hickenlooper of Colorado: 49.6%
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After a recent boost in overall polling and a sweep in primaries since Super Tuesday, we can finally project that Gillibrand has crossed the line of 1,144 delegates with a victory in the Indiana primary. After the announcement was made, Gillibrand spoke in front of Indianapolis to one of her largest and loudest crowds yet. She stated that she was thankful to all of her supporters for helping her clinch the nomination and also to President Biden for giving her the opportunity to serve in the historic position of first female Vice President, and that she wants to continue this tradition of making history this fall. She also made an olive branch to her sole competitor for the nomination, Hickenlooper by saying that she appreciates him forcing her to look at how she stands in a different light and that she will support any of his future ambitions.

After the announcement that she won a majority of delegates, she received a sweeping number of endorsements from those in the Democratic party who had not already done so, such as Presidents Obama and Clinton who are both looked back on favorably by over 60% of the US. Hickenlooper has replied to Gillibrand’s statement by saying that he will wholeheartedly support her presidential campaign, and that he holds absolutely no grudges. Gillibrand’s next big milestone, choosing a VP, will have to come within the next few months, and for both parties is a decision that could make or break their chances in this election.




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With a Cruz victory in the final Utah contest, ANN can confirm that none of the candidates have reached a majority of delegates needed to secure the nomination, and that if one of them does not drop out and endorse before the convention, there will be a brokered convention. This primary season has been highly divisive for the GOP, with a moderate, a semi-conservative and a Tea Party conservative that all fill niches in the GOP duking it out for the nomination. The divisiveness was exemplified by having the first three caucuses and primaries and the largest three contests being split up between the three candidates. Brown has repeatedly stated that he is the better choice over the “wishy-washy” Rubio or “out of touch Cruz,” which has made some people view Brown as inflammatory and others as a common sense candidate.



Brown, having the least number of delegates has been asked by a number of people to drop out and endorse Rubio or Cruz, most notably Jeb Bush who did so in 2016 for Ayotte to avoid a brokered convention between her and Paul. However, Brown said that he is under no circumstance giving up his fight for the nomination. Rubio and Cruz have stated that they are going to continue to fight very hard. At this time, we can get a first glimpse at some possible electoral outcomes based on three different possible matchups.


Here is a contest with Brown as the GOP nominee. He performs best out of the three, with 143 EVs. He gained states in the northeast, but gave up the huge prize of Texas to toss up, with a lot of the conservatives being disillusioned with Brown and opting for Huntsman over him. This has given Cruz some bait with which to attack Brown’s electability.


Next, we have Rubio who performs just behind Brown with 139 EVs. He takes back Texas, but loses significant ground in the Northeast and Georgia. He leads slightly in his home state of Florida, but that is still within the margin of error and is therefore a toss up.


Finally, we have Cruz, who is in a far back third place. He manages to keep Texas, but he loses a ton of ground and gives up important states such as Virginia and Florida to Gillibrand. There is also significant vote siphoning to Huntsman, who gains Montana, New Hampshire and Maine’s 2nd district. He is also polling neck and neck with Cruz in Alaska and his home state of Utah. If Cruz ends up using the unelectable card for Brown frequently, it might come back to haunt him seeing his electability is much less than Brown in the eyes of the American people.

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