Friday, November 15, 2013

A House Divided: March Primaries

O’Malley wins slight edge in Democratic Super Tuesday contests
Chris Bradford, ANN Contributor
1 March 2016, updated 6:53 PM EST

Martin O’Malley has expanded his lead in the Democratic field of candidates through today’s Super Tuesday contests. O’Malley won a majority of the contests today, which were in his strong areas of the South and Northeast. Klobuchar won the big prize of Texas and Udall kept his campaign afloat through a narrow victory in Oklahoma. Udall has stated that he would like to keep his campaign running because he believes that he has the best ideas and appeal to keep the Democratic Party in the White House. O’Malley made a statement to supporters in Portland today, stating that he hopes to keep his campaign going strong to get a “real progressive” representing the party. The current delegate allotment is as follows:


Governor Martin O’Malley of Maryland: 312 delegates
Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota: 287 delegates
Senator Mark Udall of Colorado: 162 delegates
Governor Deval Patrick: 14 delegates (pledged to O’Malley)
Fmr. Governor Howard Dean of Vermont: 0 delegates




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Cruz wins big in GOP Super Tuesday contests
Chris Bradford, ANN Contributor
6 March 2016, updated 6:10 PM EST

The true impact of the split of the moderate vote has reared its head today. Cruz took a number of winner take all contests, giving him an enormous delegate lead, while Murkowski and Christie remain neck and neck, but far behind. Senator Paul gave Murkowski a crucial edge after he endorsed her and gave up his big prize of 35 delegates to her. Cruz made a speech to supporters in Salt Lake City, where the crowd was extremely energized by his performance in the primaries. He told supporters that “the Republican Party finally understands that they can not nominate a weak candidate again” and that “he sees the light at the end of the tunnel.” Christie and Murkowski have both expressed what they feel the dangers of a Cruz candidacy would be, and they have both called on each other to drop out to end the split of the moderate vote. The current delegate counts are as follows:

Senator Ted Cruz of Texas: 394 delegates
Senator Lisa Murkowski Alaska: 211 delegates
Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey: 207 delegates
Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky: 35 delegates (pledged to Murkowski)
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania: 4 delegates (pledged to Cruz)
Governor Bobby Jindal of Louisiana: 0 delegates

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Udall suspends campaign, endorses O’Malley
Chris Bradford, ANN Contributor
7 March 2016, updated 8:52 PM EST

Senator Mark Udall announced today that he is suspending his presidential campaign, and he has decided to endorse O’Malley for the Democratic nomination. In his speech in Denver, Colorado, he stated that he ran a “strong campaign, but simply did not have the momentum to make it.” He wants the Democratic party to rally around O’Malley in order for the party to look stronger looking towards the general election. Udall was able to pull a victory in Oklahoma on Super Tuesday, but he remained very far behind O’Malley and Klobuchar.

At this point in the Democratic contest, O’Malley appears to be pulling a greater lead over even Klobuchar. It is still a decent distance away from the finish line, but this race is not too close. O’Malley has continued campaigning, and he has spoke of uniting the party and has largely moved past attacks on other Democrats. He has been attempting to create an advantage for the Democrats over the Republicans, as the GOP is still embroiled in a three way war.
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Murkowski pulls out enormous lead, Christie falls out of contest
Chris Bradford, ANN Contributor
1 April 2016, updated 2:07 PM EST

Over the course of March, we have seen yet another enormous shift in the Republican contest. Super Tuesday might have been overwhelmingly for Cruz, but the rest of March has had a very strong showing for Murkowski. The Republican Party decided to host a post-Super Tuesday debate in order to make a more decisive primary fight, and this debate overwhelmingly favored Murkowski. The Alaskan senator tore Cruz down on his “weak” stances on social ideas as well as tearing Christie down on his record as Governor, stating that he has the personality, but nothing to back it up. Also, there were allegations that came out questioning Christie’s credibility over an FBI investigation of his lieutenant governor Kim Guadagno, which hurt his polling and allowed Murkowski to take much of his Northeastern Republican base under her wing. Her dominance in the debates has certainly helped her performance this month, as she was able to flip big winner take all states such as Pennsylvania and New York.

Murkowski has brought herself just short of the number of delegates needed for victory, and although Cruz remains competitive, it becomes decently likely that Murkowski can clinch the nomination. Christie is effectively out at this point, but he has stated that he refuses to drop out at this point, and likely wants to take the nomination to convention in an attempt to win it. Murkowski and Cruz have attempted to shore up voters and repair the broken view of the Republican Party by taking cross country campaigns and rallies. Below is the current map and delegate counts as of now. An important note is that North Dakota and Tennessee were incorrectly projected for Cruz on Super Tuesday, but after full counts they actually went for Murkowski.

Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska: 1146 delegates
Senator Ted Cruz of Texas: 856 delegates
Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey: 276 delegates
Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky: 35 delegates (pledged to Murkowski)
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania: 4 delegates (pledged to Cruz)
Governor Bobby Jindal of Louisiana: 0 delegates

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O’Malley pulls ahead in March contests
Chris Bradford, ANN Contributor
2 April 2016, updated 6:10 AM EST

Governor O’Malley has continued to reinforce his lead in the Democratic contests through the March contests. O’Malley has won the vast majority of the big contests in the South and Northeast, while the only big contest Klobuchar was able to take was Illinois. Even though the Democratic field is more united behind O’Malley, he is far from having as commanding of a delegate lead as Murkowski because of the fact that the Democratic Party does not allow winner take all primaries. There is little doubt that he will pass that threshold however, with big contests that he is polling favorably in, such as California and Washington coming up shortly that should make things more definitive. Here is the primary map and current delegate counts as of today below:

Governor Martin O’Malley of Maryland: 868 delegates
Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota: 398 delegates
Senator Mark Udall of Colorado: 162 delegates (pledged to O’Malley)
Governor Deval Patrick: 14 delegates (pledged to O’Malley)
Fmr. Governor Howard Dean of Vermont: 0 delegates

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