Saturday, December 28, 2013

A House Divided: Election Night in America (2016) - 6:00 PM


Welcome to ANN’s coverage of Election Night in America on this night of  November 8, 2016. It has been a very long divisive season, and it appears that we are in for a very long night, since polls indicate that we will see the closest election since 2000. President Obama has been in office for nearly eight years, and whoever is elected tonight will tell quite a bit about what America thinks he and the Democratic Party have done. With us tonight are our two distinguished political analysts: Stanley Coons, who falls more in line with the Republican Party, and Stacey Jones, who is involved with the Democratic Party. Coming up very shortly are our first poll closings and projections.
--------------------



The first state which we can call tonight is Vermont, which will fall comfortably for O'Malley. Vermont hasn't voted Republican in a presidential elections since Bush Sr. in 1988. The rest of New England will likely be much more interesting tonight as Murkowski has been surprisingly competitive in the usually solid Maine.
--------------------



The second state which we are prepared to call is Kentucky, which will fall for Murkowski, as predicted. It is yet to be seen if the state will be won with 60% of the vote like it was for Romney in 2012, however.
--------------------



South Carolina is another reliably Republican state which will cast its nine electoral votes for Murkowski. It appears that O'Malley's mid Atlantic appeal did not make its way down this far.
--------------------



Indiana will also be called for Murkowski. It is a slight surprise to see Indiana being called this early, but the state has swung significantly to the Republican Party since Obama's narrow victory in 2008, and this is surely reflective of that.
--------------------



The state of Georgia is too close to call at the present. Murkowski maintains a lead, but it is fluctuating and we need to wait for more votes to be counted to feel comfortable making a call.
--------------------



The state of Virginia is also too close to call. O'Malley currently holds a lead, but Virginia has historically been a close and important state. Murkowski's possibility to actually win in Virginia have been labeled as slim by a number of analysts, but it is simply not clear enough to say anything yet.
--------------------

Murkowski currently dominates the electoral vote totals and popular vote counts, but it is still very early, and as we all know, anything could happen. However, Virginia has showed some favorability towards O'Malley throughout the season, and without Virginia, a Republican path to 270 becomes much more challenging. However, Murkowski could very likely make up for this by gains in the Midwest and New England.

Jones: Virginia is looking to be trending the most Democratic it has been in decades. I feel confident that O’Malley will pick it up, and no Virginia puts quite a strain on GOP victory. I know that we will not be seeing as comfortable victories in the Electoral college as President Obama has, but I think the odds are still on our side.

Coons: I wouldn’t underestimate Murkowski. She has a distinct possibility of picking up Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Maine’s 2nd as well as at-large: Virginia is not a dead end any more. The pre election polling put her at Romney states plus New Hampshire, which I would say is a very favorable map for the Republicans. I think that either person could realistically pull a victory looking forward. It is still early though, I don’t want to speculate too much before we get more info as more polls close.



No comments:

Post a Comment