Sunday, December 29, 2013

A House Divided: Election Night in America (2016) - 7:00 PM


Welcome back to Election Night in America. It is now 7:00 PM on the East Coast, and there are a number of poll closings which we are prepared to call.


First off is a very easy call, which is Washington D.C. and its three electoral votes for O'Malley. D.C. has historically been a very strong Democratic base.
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Not far from D.C. is the state of West Virginia, which will go very strongly for Murkowski. This state has shifted drastically since its status as a Democratic stronghold in the 1990s.
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Also for Murkowski, we can call the state of Alabama and its nine electoral votes. There is a slightly depressed turnout, which was expected from the call from some social conservatives to boycott the election.
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Mississippi will also stay solidly in the Republican column. O’Malley worked hard to try to raise the African-American turnout, but the state did not budge very much.
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Next state for O'Malley will be New York. A big prize at 29 electoral votes, but an expected one.
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We can also call the state of Massachusetts for O'Malley. Massachusetts is another Democratic stronghold and Murkowski's notable popularity in New England will hardly push down his level of victory.
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The state of New Hampshire is too close to call at this time. Over the course of the election season, the state has gradually bent in favor of Murkowski, especially because her running mate, Senator Ayotte, is from New Hampshire.
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New Hampshire's neighbor, Maine, splits its electoral votes by congressional district. O'Malley will win Maine's 1st rather easily, but Maine's 2nd and Maine At-Large is too close to call. Maine is not usually a state up for grabs, but this election has created some interesting circumstances.
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Oklahoma is the next state which we are prepared to call for Murkowski. This has been a reliably Republican state, and also one that is notable for not allowing any third parties on the ballot.
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Maryland, the home state of O’Malley, will give its 10 electoral votes to him by quite a significant margin of the popular vote.
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Delaware will vote quite reliably for the Democratic Party, especially with O’Malley’s home state being it’s neighbor.
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The state of North Carolina remains too close to call at this time. Murkowski has maintained a lead in the state for quite some time, but O’Malley was never very far behind her. This state is more and more becoming a critical swing state.
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New Jersey remains solidly with  the Democratic Party. The state had a possibility to be more in play, but the GOP’s hopes were dashed with the fall of Christie.
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Rhode Island and its four electoral votes will fall reliably in line with O'Malley and the Democrats.
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Illinois is another big gain, but an expected one, at 20 electoral votes. Every election, however, the state seems to be falling more and more to the Republicans, which is a worrying trend for the Democrats.
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Connecticut is yet another relatively expected Democratic gain.
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The final call we can make at this time is Tennessee, which will fall reliably in Murkowski's column.
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The state of Ohio is too close to call. Ohio has been a classic swing state, and which way it falls may end up determining the election.
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Missouri is, rather surprisingly, too close to call at this time. It has polled in favor of Murkowski all season, but the early counts in St.Louis and suburbs have a strong Democratic lean compared to the rest of the state.
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Pennsylvania is another state which is too close to call. It has generally been a strong place for the Democrats, but the Republicans have been making a lot of inroads, and it will be interesting to see if this state will stick to its Democratic leans or not.
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O’Malley now holds a lead in the electoral vote, as well as the popular vote, but a number of states remain too close to call, and those will end up being what are critical. There are some surprises that Missouri has not been called, and nor has Georgia, which questions if the Democrats are gaining the edge in this election.

Coons: Democratic support has been increasing greatly in Georgia and North Carolina, and this is something that the GOP can only stop if they can increase their appeal to minorities, which is something I think Murkowski has been very successful in doing. I feel that these states should be called relatively soon for Murkowski, so there is no need to worry too much about early counts.

Jones: The Democrats do have the tide on their side, because the Republicans are gradually losing big states like Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Texas because of demographic changes. The Republican party is going to have to make major changes to its image, a part of which is dealing with its significant vocal minority of social conservatives that are turning off voters like minorities.


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Here is an update on current Senate races as of the latest poll closings. No seats have changed hands yet. The Republicans have been excited by an early victory by Senator Richard Burr of North Carolina, who defeats challenger Mike McIntyre much easier than previously thought based off of polling. Pennsylvania (Senator Toomey v. Kathleen Kane), Ohio (Senator Portman v. Tim Ryan), Illinois (Lisa Madigan v. Aaron Schock), New Hampshire (Senator Ayotte v. Carol Shea-Porter)  and Georgia (Senator Kingston v. Jason Carter) all remain too close to call. The Republicans certianly have a lot more seats up for grabs than the Democrats, which came about as a result of 2010, which was the last time Class 3 was up for election, being a Republican wave year. This may have helped them then, but it is putting them under a lot of pressure tonight.


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