Tuesday, December 31, 2013

A House Divided - Election Night In America (2016) - 8:00 PM


Welcome back to ANN's coverage of Election Night in America. It is now 8:00 PM here on the East Coast, and more states in the country's center have closed their polls.

The first state we can call at this time is Arkansas for Murkowski. Much like West Virginia, it has swung significantly to the Republican Party since being a Democratic stronghold in the 1990s.
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Arkansas neighbor, Louisiana, can also be called for Murkowski. The state's governor, Bobby Jindal, was the first major player to endorse Murkowski after dropping out post-Iowa.
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Michigan can now be called for O’Malley. This state has wavered in Democratic support as of late, but it continues to remain strongly in the Democratic column.
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Kansas can now be called for Murkowski and the Republicans. No surprise here.
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Nebraska will also contribute its five electoral votes towards Murkowski.
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South Dakota can be called for Murkowski. Again, these states in the Great Plains are solidly Republican and are easy calls.
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North Dakota will fall in step with its neighbor. The Dakotas very consistently vote together, and this is no exception.
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Texas can be called for Murkowski at this time. A big gain at 38 electoral votes, but a fairly expected one.
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The state of Iowa is too close to call at this time. Both candidates have shown to be competitive in this state and whatever the result, it is going to be very close.
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O'Malley has a big victory in the early call of Minnesota. The home of VP nominee Amy Klobuchar was polling as a swing state, albeit giving O'Malley a minor lead, and it was not expected to be called shortly after poll closings.
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The state of Wisconsin is too close to call. It has generally displayed Democratic leans, but Murkowski has been tremendously competitive in the Midwest.
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Montana can be called for Murkowski. The Democratic Party has a fairly strong base here, but the Republicans have maintained a step ahead of them.
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New Mexico can be called for O’Malley now. This state has moved very significantly to the Democratic column after President Bush’s narrow victory here in 2004.
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Missouri, previously too close to call, can now be called for Murkowski. This was an expected gain for Murkowski, but O’Malley did perform slightly better than expected here.
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Colorado remains too close to call at this time. This state has been a fairly major swing state for a few decades, and has flipped many times.
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Arizona is also too close to call at this time. This is an expected gain for Murkowski, but the Democratic base has been growing stronger every election and it is likely that it will move into battleground status within a few years.
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The state of Georgia, previously too close to call, can now be called for Murkowski. This is a decent relief to the Murkowski campaign. Much like Arizona, this state has shifting demographics, but it will stick with its Republican leans.
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Florida is too close to call. It is a big state at 29 electoral votes and the closest one last election, so this will be a state to watch.
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Murkowski now holds a solid lead in the Electoral College and popular vote, but both of those have been fluctuating, and it may be fleeting with the solidly Democratic west coast closing relatively soon. Missouri and Georgia are reliefs to the Murkowski campaign, but the early call of Minnesota could point the other way.

Coons: This lead is pretty solid for Murkowski, and I think O’Malley’s boost on the West Coast will be temporary. She has leads in a lot of important states, and the fact that she currently has a lead in Iowa is telling of what the final result will be.

Jones: It is good to see Minnesota called so early, but I think it is one that we would see fall to the Democrats in the end anyways. I really think it is too soon to make a call on who can win, as Ohio, Iowa, Florida, Maine, and Colorado are all still less than a percentage point apart between the two and those states will surely end up deciding the election.


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