Sunday, October 13, 2013

A House Divided: The Road to Iowa Part 2

Murkowski: "My credentials are stronger than Christie's"
Chris Bradford, ANN Contributor
30 October 2015, updated 5:24 PM EST

In an interview with our own Anderson Cooper today, Murkowski made the case that moderates should vote for her over Christie because she has the stronger credentials. She spoke about her ideas on a number of topics during the interview, with a special emphasis on compromise. She stated that "the Republican Party in its current state is too adverse or compromise, and that is what is making the American people be more favorable to the Democratic Party." She emphasized the fact that she was willing to compromise to get things done instead of "retreating to another form of partisan gridlock." In preparation for the upcoming Iowa caucuses, she also responded to a number of questions about the other candidates, especially Chris Christie, who is closest to her ideologically out of the group. She stated that he has the personality and charisma with none of the credentials to back it up, and that as the Governor of New Jersey he failed to accomplish many of the things that he set out to do.

Senator Murkowski, regularly considered the underdog in the race, has been steadily rising in polls. Many have cited Christie's potential to have an abrasive personality at times, while Murkowski holds a more agreeable personality. However, she struggles with having significantly less name recognition than Christie, and has a significant amount of ground to make up if she wants to make it big in Iowa.

Warren, Cuomo opt out of the presidential race
Chris Bradford, ANN Contributor
1 November 2015, updated 1:03 PM EST

Two national names in the Democratic Party, Governor Cuomo of New York and Senator Warren of Massachusetts have opted out of a run today. Cuomo stated that now was simply not his time, and that serving as New York's governor has been enough of a fulfillment to him. Senator Warren, who has become known for her strong progressive economic policy making, has opted out of the race because she feels that she can make more impact towards shaping laws and heading committees in the Senate than she ever could in the presidency. A number of people have expressed disappointment over these decisions not to run, as there was a lot of support building up behind each.

Now, the bulk of speculation for the Democratic field turns to Senator Gillibrand, who would command the Democratic field in polling should she run. A lot of the Clinton camp has pushed Gillibrand to run, and now with Warren out, a lot of her support base has began to push her to run. She has only responded by stating that she needs to "weigh her options carefully" and that she "has not made a decision."

BREAKING: Senator Cruz announces presidential run
Chris Bradford, ANN Contributor
1 November 2015, updated 8:59 PM EST

At a rally just outside of Houston today, Senator Cruz ended enormous speculation surrounding a possible presidential run by confirming that he will enter the race. He stated that there needs to be a "passionate conservative with the drive to get things done without sacrificing values." This ends tremendous speculation surrounding a run from him, and preliminary polling shows him at third place nationally and first in Iowa. Cruz has had a significant effect on the polling of Paul and Santorum, while Christie and Murkowski have remained relatively steady. Right now is too early to see reactions from any other candidates, but they will surely trickle in. Cruz has not hesitated in labeling Santorum as an unviable option and a candidate of the past.

8:59 PM: Santorum has responded by saying "I wish that conservatives would work together, instead of fighting amongst ourselves. Do you want a ideologically impure candidate to represent this party?"

Thursday, October 3, 2013

A House Divided: The Road to Iowa

Santorum to Cruz: "Let's not split the conservative vote"
Chris Bradford, ANN Contributor
23 October 2015, updated 2:47 PM EST

Republican presidential hopeful Rick Santorum is clearly trying to avoid many mistakes he made in 2012, and is getting his campaigning off to a very strong start. He has participated in a number of town halls across the state of Iowa over the course of the past few days, and is trying to garner support among rural Evangelical conservatives. He spoke about keeping "traditional social values" and "undoing the damage of the Obama administration" in regards to Obamacare and the regulations placed on Wall Street. Santorum is trying to build upon his Base from the Iowa caucus in 2012, where he won a plurality in the popular vote. His polling has increased due to these trips, but today it has garnered a lot of attention due to the fact that he made a call at one of his meetings for Ted Cruz, who is still on the fence about a presidential run, to keep out.

He spoke about how important it was for a "ideologically pure" candidate to be picked by the Republican Party over a "wishy-washy moderate," and that in order for that to happen, he wanted to prevent any other conservative from entering the race to prevent infighting and vote splitting so that they have a better shot at winning the nomination. There are multiple potential conservative candidates that could enter the race, but the major one is Senator Ted Cruz. Theoretical polling is placing support for a Cruz candidacy higher than a Santorum one, which could be one reason why Santorum made these remarks. Senator Cruz has replied only by saying that "he is weighing his options," and that "healthy competition keeps politicians sharp."

"The Republican field lacks someone with common sense paired with the drive and the willingness to compromise in order to get things done in our deadlocked Congress. I have come to understand how I can get Washington to turn its wheels once again, but I cannot bring my ideas to fruition while remaining in Congress. Even though I have been honored to represent the people of Alaska, I hope that they can support my candidacy for the presidency of the United States.”
-Senator Lisa Murkowski in Anchorage, Alaska on October 25, 2015

“I have come here today to announce that I will not be running for president. I have loved to serve as the governor of the state of New Mexico, and I do not want to leave this state and put my family, especially my sister, under the stresses of an international campaign. For these reasons, I have decided that my family is more important to me, and that I will support whoever the Republican Party chooses.”
-Governor Susana Martinez in Santa Fe, New Mexico on October 28, 2015

“I have seen how much deadlock there is in Washington, and I know that the people are fed up with it. The state of Colorado, a tossup in presidential elections, has re-elected me to Congress, and they have seen my ability to compromise while still getting things done. We need somebody who can continue President Obama’s progress while accelerating the pace of it and getting even more done. That is why I have made the decision to run for President of the United States.
-Senator Mark Udall in Pueblo, Colorado on October 25, 2015

“Many people have asked whether or not I will run for president. I have tossed the question to myself and my family a number of times, and I have finally made my decision that I will not be running. I have been honored to be able to serve as governor of the wonderful state of Colorado, and have decided to endorse Senator Udall for the Democratic nomination.”
-Governor John Hickenlooper in Denver, Colorado on October 26, 2015

“I have been honored to serve the state of Massachusetts through periods of despair and hope. This state has sticked together and become much more prosperous than ever before. I have decided to declare my candidacy for president so I can bring the prosperity of Massachusetts to the nation and bring America into a new era.”
-Governor Deval Patrick in Boston, Massachusetts on October 27, 2015

-October 27, 2015-

The latest round of polling results are in for the developing 2016 presidential race, and the polls are only becoming closer. Both leaders have dropped with the entrance of more people, but newcomers Udall, Patrick, and Murkowski are all in the bottom of the pack. The only person who has experienced a noticeable increase since last polling cycle is Santorum, who has been boosted by his very public appearances in town hall meetings.


These polling numbers are not exactly reflective of what polls in Iowa look like. Udall and Murkowski, currently in the back of the pack nationally, are both polling very well in Iowa. Governor Christie, who has faced enormous speculation leading up to this election season, is falling in Iowa with Murkowski close behind. Even though he has a lead looking towards New Hampshire, he is quickly falling in Iowa which could enormously damage him.

Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota- 27%
Governor Martin O'Malley of Maryland- 26%
Senator Mark Udall of Colorado- 20%
Governor Deval Patrick of Massachusetts- 11%
Undecided- 13%

Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky- 23%
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania- 23%
Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey- 20%
Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska- 17%
Undecided- 19%

Wednesday, October 2, 2013

A House Divided: Introduction


Milwaukee, Wisconsin. On a chilly October afternoon in the year of 2015, a woman beloved by many people, but hated by others stood. Her face showed age, but vigor and determination still showed through her vibrant blue eyes. This woman was Hillary Clinton: a woman who has had many expectations, and somebody who has been the subject of political buzz since President Obama won his fight for reelection. News cameras fixated on her as she walked up to the podium to speak to the enormous crowd eager to hear what she said, and an eager nation that was holding their breath.

"Welcome. I want to thank you all for coming on this chilly afternoon."

The former First Lady, Senator and Secretary of State drew in a deep breath of the frigid air as she surveyed the crowd. Thousands of eyes appeared to glimmer with hope, and she knew millions waited to pounce on her next words.

"I feel honored to have served this country for many years. I stood faithfully by my husband as he went through the ups and downs of his presidency. I served the state of New York as its senator, and then the nation as Secretary of State. I faced many challenges in public office, but have come back with courage for the people of this great nation. I may not be perfect, but I served with the best of my ability, and the fullest of my heart."

The crowd roared, the energy radiating from them seeming to speed up the vibration of the air molecules around them.

"Many people have spoken about me since my retirement. Many people have wanted me to run for the highest office in the US, one I have pursued and the people around me have supported my pursuit."
The crowd started its chant as a metronome of "Hillary! Hillary! Hillary!" She smiled, nodded her head, and waved her hand in a gesture to quiet the crowd.

"Thank you, I truly appreciate your support. However, I have not come here to push anymore. As I stated, I have served this great nation for many years, but this time must come to an end. My husband and I are finally getting a relationship as close to one we had just after our marriage, and my decision is not to run for President of the United States. I will fully support whoever the Democratic Party chooses to nominate and will campaign on their behalf. I want to truly thank you for all of the wonderful support I have been given these many decades I have spent in the public spotlight, and I hope you can continue to support the values I have worked to uphold all of these years."

She smiled and waved as she stepped off of the podium and took her husband's hand. There were isolated vocal displays of frustration and disappointment initially, but after a few seconds the crowd began to take up a feverish cheer. To the dismay of the event security, the Clintons walked into the crowd and began to shake hands. After seeing a number of people, they exited the park and stepped into the car waiting nearby. Some fanatics, mainly media paparazzi, started chasing after the car.

Some were bewildered and disappointed; some were giving a sigh of relief and joyful. One thing was sure: 2016 was suddenly up for grabs, and they were ready to pounce.

"The Democratic Party needs a strong woman candidate that can appeal to a wide range of Americans. My support was behind Hillary, but after she gracefully bowed out, I feel compelled to run in order to make a stand for the values of progressivism and to continue to bring the Democratic Party policy to the middle class American. I officially announce my candidacy for the Democratic nomination for the Presidency of the United States."
- Senator Amy Klobuchar in Minneapolis on October 18, 2015

"After careful consideration, I have decided to announce my candidacy for President. I have made many advancements in my state of Maryland serving as its governor, and I want to bring these reforms that improve the quality of life of the average American to Washington that is largely ruled by special interests and turns a deaf ear to the middle class citizen."
- Governor Martin O'Malley in Baltimore on October 18, 2015

"Eight years of the Obama administration has taken an enormous toll on America. We need somebody who can control the the government that has inflated out of control, and I believe that I am the best man to do that job. That is why I have decided to officially announce my candidacy for the presidency."
- Senator Rand Paul in Louisville on October 19, 2015

"The damage has been done. It is time we get common sense back in Washington, and not anymore snobby politicians who won't compromise. If we want to get this party back in the White House, we need common sense, and that is why I am running for president."
- Governor Chris Christie in Newark on October 20, 2015

"I hope that the Republican Party recognizes its mistake in not picking me to be its nominee in 2012. I have some of the strongest conservative credentials and can truly reverse what burdens the Obama administration has placed upon the American people."
- Former Senator Rick Santorum in Des Moines on October 22, 2015

Cruz, Gillibrand mum on presidential prospects while Hickenlooper rises
Chris Bradford, ANN Contributor
20 October 2015, updated 7:56 PM EST

The presidential race has exponentially expanded in proportion after Clinton's announcement that she will not be seeking the presidency. Many big players have entered the race so far, but more are still expected to do so. One of those that are the subject of speculation is Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, who has made comments alluding to a possible presidential run since 2013. Many have considered a run from him likely, but he has remained vague in his comments relating to a possible run, stating that "he is weighing his options" and that "the presidential race is in dire need of a strong conservative."

Another widely speculated candidate is Senator Gillibrand of New York, who rose into the national spotlight after her speech calling for massive defense spending reform and her success in passing multiple related bills in 2014. Much of the Hillary camp has pushed her to run, giving her a possible enormous base of support. So far she has states that a run is "not out of the cards" but that it will be a hard decision to make. However, another person that faces rising speculation is Governor Hickenlooper of Colorado, even though he has repeatedly said no to a presidential run before. Theoretical polls place him at 3rd place at 15%, but his numbers have steadily risen in the past few months and continue to rise. He is increasing in popularity among progressives due to his successful lead in the implementation of marijuana legalization in Colorado, and many consider him to be a better candidate than Klobuchar or O'Malley. Governor Hickenlooper has not responded to these messages yet.

Here is the polling thus far for the people who have officially declared their candidacy. Governor O'Malley leads with a slim 3% margin on the Democratic side, but with a significant chunk of undecideds, while Senator Paul has just under a 2% lead in the Republican field. These numbers are apt to change quite a bit more as we get closer to the the Iowa caucus.