Tuesday, December 31, 2013

A House Divided - Election Night In America (2016) - 8:00 PM


Welcome back to ANN's coverage of Election Night in America. It is now 8:00 PM here on the East Coast, and more states in the country's center have closed their polls.

The first state we can call at this time is Arkansas for Murkowski. Much like West Virginia, it has swung significantly to the Republican Party since being a Democratic stronghold in the 1990s.
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Arkansas neighbor, Louisiana, can also be called for Murkowski. The state's governor, Bobby Jindal, was the first major player to endorse Murkowski after dropping out post-Iowa.
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Michigan can now be called for O’Malley. This state has wavered in Democratic support as of late, but it continues to remain strongly in the Democratic column.
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Kansas can now be called for Murkowski and the Republicans. No surprise here.
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Nebraska will also contribute its five electoral votes towards Murkowski.
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South Dakota can be called for Murkowski. Again, these states in the Great Plains are solidly Republican and are easy calls.
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North Dakota will fall in step with its neighbor. The Dakotas very consistently vote together, and this is no exception.
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Texas can be called for Murkowski at this time. A big gain at 38 electoral votes, but a fairly expected one.
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The state of Iowa is too close to call at this time. Both candidates have shown to be competitive in this state and whatever the result, it is going to be very close.
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O'Malley has a big victory in the early call of Minnesota. The home of VP nominee Amy Klobuchar was polling as a swing state, albeit giving O'Malley a minor lead, and it was not expected to be called shortly after poll closings.
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The state of Wisconsin is too close to call. It has generally displayed Democratic leans, but Murkowski has been tremendously competitive in the Midwest.
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Montana can be called for Murkowski. The Democratic Party has a fairly strong base here, but the Republicans have maintained a step ahead of them.
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New Mexico can be called for O’Malley now. This state has moved very significantly to the Democratic column after President Bush’s narrow victory here in 2004.
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Missouri, previously too close to call, can now be called for Murkowski. This was an expected gain for Murkowski, but O’Malley did perform slightly better than expected here.
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Colorado remains too close to call at this time. This state has been a fairly major swing state for a few decades, and has flipped many times.
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Arizona is also too close to call at this time. This is an expected gain for Murkowski, but the Democratic base has been growing stronger every election and it is likely that it will move into battleground status within a few years.
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The state of Georgia, previously too close to call, can now be called for Murkowski. This is a decent relief to the Murkowski campaign. Much like Arizona, this state has shifting demographics, but it will stick with its Republican leans.
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Florida is too close to call. It is a big state at 29 electoral votes and the closest one last election, so this will be a state to watch.
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Murkowski now holds a solid lead in the Electoral College and popular vote, but both of those have been fluctuating, and it may be fleeting with the solidly Democratic west coast closing relatively soon. Missouri and Georgia are reliefs to the Murkowski campaign, but the early call of Minnesota could point the other way.

Coons: This lead is pretty solid for Murkowski, and I think O’Malley’s boost on the West Coast will be temporary. She has leads in a lot of important states, and the fact that she currently has a lead in Iowa is telling of what the final result will be.

Jones: It is good to see Minnesota called so early, but I think it is one that we would see fall to the Democrats in the end anyways. I really think it is too soon to make a call on who can win, as Ohio, Iowa, Florida, Maine, and Colorado are all still less than a percentage point apart between the two and those states will surely end up deciding the election.


Sunday, December 29, 2013

A House Divided: Election Night in America (2016) - 7:00 PM


Welcome back to Election Night in America. It is now 7:00 PM on the East Coast, and there are a number of poll closings which we are prepared to call.


First off is a very easy call, which is Washington D.C. and its three electoral votes for O'Malley. D.C. has historically been a very strong Democratic base.
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Not far from D.C. is the state of West Virginia, which will go very strongly for Murkowski. This state has shifted drastically since its status as a Democratic stronghold in the 1990s.
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Also for Murkowski, we can call the state of Alabama and its nine electoral votes. There is a slightly depressed turnout, which was expected from the call from some social conservatives to boycott the election.
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Mississippi will also stay solidly in the Republican column. O’Malley worked hard to try to raise the African-American turnout, but the state did not budge very much.
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Next state for O'Malley will be New York. A big prize at 29 electoral votes, but an expected one.
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We can also call the state of Massachusetts for O'Malley. Massachusetts is another Democratic stronghold and Murkowski's notable popularity in New England will hardly push down his level of victory.
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The state of New Hampshire is too close to call at this time. Over the course of the election season, the state has gradually bent in favor of Murkowski, especially because her running mate, Senator Ayotte, is from New Hampshire.
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New Hampshire's neighbor, Maine, splits its electoral votes by congressional district. O'Malley will win Maine's 1st rather easily, but Maine's 2nd and Maine At-Large is too close to call. Maine is not usually a state up for grabs, but this election has created some interesting circumstances.
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Oklahoma is the next state which we are prepared to call for Murkowski. This has been a reliably Republican state, and also one that is notable for not allowing any third parties on the ballot.
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Maryland, the home state of O’Malley, will give its 10 electoral votes to him by quite a significant margin of the popular vote.
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Delaware will vote quite reliably for the Democratic Party, especially with O’Malley’s home state being it’s neighbor.
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The state of North Carolina remains too close to call at this time. Murkowski has maintained a lead in the state for quite some time, but O’Malley was never very far behind her. This state is more and more becoming a critical swing state.
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New Jersey remains solidly with  the Democratic Party. The state had a possibility to be more in play, but the GOP’s hopes were dashed with the fall of Christie.
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Rhode Island and its four electoral votes will fall reliably in line with O'Malley and the Democrats.
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Illinois is another big gain, but an expected one, at 20 electoral votes. Every election, however, the state seems to be falling more and more to the Republicans, which is a worrying trend for the Democrats.
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Connecticut is yet another relatively expected Democratic gain.
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The final call we can make at this time is Tennessee, which will fall reliably in Murkowski's column.
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The state of Ohio is too close to call. Ohio has been a classic swing state, and which way it falls may end up determining the election.
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Missouri is, rather surprisingly, too close to call at this time. It has polled in favor of Murkowski all season, but the early counts in St.Louis and suburbs have a strong Democratic lean compared to the rest of the state.
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Pennsylvania is another state which is too close to call. It has generally been a strong place for the Democrats, but the Republicans have been making a lot of inroads, and it will be interesting to see if this state will stick to its Democratic leans or not.
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O’Malley now holds a lead in the electoral vote, as well as the popular vote, but a number of states remain too close to call, and those will end up being what are critical. There are some surprises that Missouri has not been called, and nor has Georgia, which questions if the Democrats are gaining the edge in this election.

Coons: Democratic support has been increasing greatly in Georgia and North Carolina, and this is something that the GOP can only stop if they can increase their appeal to minorities, which is something I think Murkowski has been very successful in doing. I feel that these states should be called relatively soon for Murkowski, so there is no need to worry too much about early counts.

Jones: The Democrats do have the tide on their side, because the Republicans are gradually losing big states like Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Texas because of demographic changes. The Republican party is going to have to make major changes to its image, a part of which is dealing with its significant vocal minority of social conservatives that are turning off voters like minorities.


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Here is an update on current Senate races as of the latest poll closings. No seats have changed hands yet. The Republicans have been excited by an early victory by Senator Richard Burr of North Carolina, who defeats challenger Mike McIntyre much easier than previously thought based off of polling. Pennsylvania (Senator Toomey v. Kathleen Kane), Ohio (Senator Portman v. Tim Ryan), Illinois (Lisa Madigan v. Aaron Schock), New Hampshire (Senator Ayotte v. Carol Shea-Porter)  and Georgia (Senator Kingston v. Jason Carter) all remain too close to call. The Republicans certianly have a lot more seats up for grabs than the Democrats, which came about as a result of 2010, which was the last time Class 3 was up for election, being a Republican wave year. This may have helped them then, but it is putting them under a lot of pressure tonight.


Saturday, December 28, 2013

A House Divided: Election Night in America (2016) - 6:00 PM


Welcome to ANN’s coverage of Election Night in America on this night of  November 8, 2016. It has been a very long divisive season, and it appears that we are in for a very long night, since polls indicate that we will see the closest election since 2000. President Obama has been in office for nearly eight years, and whoever is elected tonight will tell quite a bit about what America thinks he and the Democratic Party have done. With us tonight are our two distinguished political analysts: Stanley Coons, who falls more in line with the Republican Party, and Stacey Jones, who is involved with the Democratic Party. Coming up very shortly are our first poll closings and projections.
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The first state which we can call tonight is Vermont, which will fall comfortably for O'Malley. Vermont hasn't voted Republican in a presidential elections since Bush Sr. in 1988. The rest of New England will likely be much more interesting tonight as Murkowski has been surprisingly competitive in the usually solid Maine.
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The second state which we are prepared to call is Kentucky, which will fall for Murkowski, as predicted. It is yet to be seen if the state will be won with 60% of the vote like it was for Romney in 2012, however.
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South Carolina is another reliably Republican state which will cast its nine electoral votes for Murkowski. It appears that O'Malley's mid Atlantic appeal did not make its way down this far.
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Indiana will also be called for Murkowski. It is a slight surprise to see Indiana being called this early, but the state has swung significantly to the Republican Party since Obama's narrow victory in 2008, and this is surely reflective of that.
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The state of Georgia is too close to call at the present. Murkowski maintains a lead, but it is fluctuating and we need to wait for more votes to be counted to feel comfortable making a call.
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The state of Virginia is also too close to call. O'Malley currently holds a lead, but Virginia has historically been a close and important state. Murkowski's possibility to actually win in Virginia have been labeled as slim by a number of analysts, but it is simply not clear enough to say anything yet.
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Murkowski currently dominates the electoral vote totals and popular vote counts, but it is still very early, and as we all know, anything could happen. However, Virginia has showed some favorability towards O'Malley throughout the season, and without Virginia, a Republican path to 270 becomes much more challenging. However, Murkowski could very likely make up for this by gains in the Midwest and New England.

Jones: Virginia is looking to be trending the most Democratic it has been in decades. I feel confident that O’Malley will pick it up, and no Virginia puts quite a strain on GOP victory. I know that we will not be seeing as comfortable victories in the Electoral college as President Obama has, but I think the odds are still on our side.

Coons: I wouldn’t underestimate Murkowski. She has a distinct possibility of picking up Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Maine’s 2nd as well as at-large: Virginia is not a dead end any more. The pre election polling put her at Romney states plus New Hampshire, which I would say is a very favorable map for the Republicans. I think that either person could realistically pull a victory looking forward. It is still early though, I don’t want to speculate too much before we get more info as more polls close.