Wednesday, January 1, 2014

A House Divided: Election Night in America (2016) - 9:00 PM


It is now 9:00, and the last polls have closed on the West Coast. We are also prepared to call some states that were previously too close to call. We also have some announcements to make regarding the Senate and House of Representatives. Without further ado, let us continue our coverage.


The state of Hawaii can be called for O'Malley. It will vote for him by over a 70% margin of victory, the second greatest behind District of Columbia.
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Utah can be called fairly easily for Murkowski. It has consistently been the strongest Republican state in the country for the past few elections and tonight will be no exception.
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California can be called for O'Malley. This is a huge gain at 55 electoral votes, but it is a fairly expected one.
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The state of Alaska can fairly easily be called for resident Murkowski. She will win the state with over 60% of the vote, the biggest margin of victory for a Republican since 2004.
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Idaho can be called for Murkowksi. This is another strongly Republican state.
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Washington can now be called for O'Malley. This is a fairly easy call, as Washington is fairly strongly Democratic.
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Washington's neighbor, Oregon, can now be called for O'Malley. Murkowski was speculated early on as being competitive in Oregon, but it was not to be the case.
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Nevada can also be called for O'Malley. It was considered competitive early on, but it shifted towards O'Malley towards the end of the season.
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The state of Arizona can now be called for Murkowski. It will remain in the GOP column as expected, but the state is becoming closer and closer each election cycle and it is going to become critical come next decade.
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The state of North Carolina can now be called for Murkowski. It had shown some Republican leans, but the state remains very competitive for both parties. Murkowksi's margin of victory in the state is greater than Romney's by just under a percent. This is likely a very good sign for her greater election chances.
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New Hampshire, which was also too close to call, can now be called for Murkowksi. This state had shown some Republican leans, but it remained competitive. The choice of Senator Ayotte as running mate likely wrapped up this state, much like Klobuchar did for O'Malley. This puts Murkowski at a greater number of electoral votes than Romney earned in 2012, which was a result predicted by many.
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Maine can now be called, with O'Malley earning the two At-Large electoral votes, but losing the 2nd congressional district to Murkowski. Historically, Maine has been more of a Democratic state, but President Bush came close to winning the 2nd district in 2000. Murkowski has had a decent amount of popularity in New England, more so than the last few Republican candidates. This will be the first time that Maine splits its electoral votes by district. This is one of the first big swing states to really fall, and we are approaching the time where the decision is made.
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Now all polls have closed, and O'Malley has a slim lead of 10 electoral vote, but has ended up slightly behind Murkowski in the popular vote. The result of this election will fall in the hands of Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Florida. Since no candidate currently shares a lead in both popular and electoral votes, this election is very likely going to come down to the wire.

Coons: The fact that Maine’s 2nd fell red and that North Carolina will go for Murkowski by a greater margin than it did for Romney are both signs that I think point towards a Republican victory. It is going to be close either way, but it just looks like the Republicans can pull it out this time. She has the rural appeal that I think can wrap up Iowa and Colorado, and Florida and Ohio will naturally swing.

Jones: Of course this is going to be a close election, but O’Malley can still pull this out. He does not need to win as many of the states still up for grabs as Murkowski does. Still of issue is the popular vote, however. We could end up with the Electoral College electing somebody who does not reflect the popular vote, which I would think is going to spell bad things for whoever ends up in the White House come January.



























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At this time, we can make a couple important projections:
DEMOCRATS RETAIN MAJORITY IN SENATE
REPUBLICANS RETAIN MAJORITY IN HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

As of poll closings on the West Coast, the Democratic Party has reached a majority of 50 seats in the Senate, with a number of seats still up for grabs. Senators Ayotte and Murkowski will retain their senate seats, but it is yet to be seen what will happen with those pending results of the presidential election. Senators Portman of Ohio and Isakson of Georgia have defeated their Democratic challengers, but democratic challenger Ron Kind defeated incumbent Ron Johnson in Wisconsin, a big pickup for the Democrats. Still vulnerable are Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada, Senator Kirk of Illinois, Senator Toomey of Pennsylvania, and Senator Grassley of Iowa. Also notable is that Representative David Schweikert will fill the seat of retiring Senator McCain in Arizona.

It is looking like if Senator Reid is defeated, then there will be a significant fight for the position of senate leader. An obvious choice would be Senator Durbin, the current Majority Whip, but Senators Gillibrand, Warner, and Bennet have expressed interest in filling the position of Majority Leader. Whoever fills this seat will be extremely important for whichever administration takes office in January.


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